Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 0.019260 0.021865 0.024702 0.028021 0.031801 0.035975 0.040937
2025-03-16 0.014843 0.018333 0.022471 0.027748 0.034308 0.042212 0.052482
2025-03-23 0.012897 0.016866 0.021854 0.028598 0.037502 0.048894 0.064635
2025-03-30 0.010889 0.014913 0.020212 0.027725 0.038143 0.052140 0.072479
2025-04-06 0.009531 0.013584 0.019141 0.027351 0.039229 0.055885 0.081177
2025-04-13 0.008252 0.012182 0.017768 0.026325 0.039184 0.057912 0.087489
2025-04-20 0.007721 0.011777 0.017737 0.027185 0.041892 0.064087 0.100459
2025-04-27 0.007222 0.011353 0.017614 0.027855 0.044327 0.070022 0.113599
2025-05-04 0.006827 0.011041 0.017612 0.028684 0.047050 0.076603 0.128376
2025-05-11 0.006255 0.010383 0.016994 0.028442 0.047981 0.080343 0.138773
2025-05-18 0.005807 0.009881 0.016572 0.028466 0.049325 0.084841 0.150843
2025-05-25 0.005332 0.009286 0.015937 0.028054 0.049858 0.087964 0.160742
2025-06-01 0.005054 0.009016 0.015845 0.028604 0.052179 0.094506 0.177665
2025-06-08 0.004668 0.008520 0.015316 0.028324 0.052975 0.098390 0.190073
2025-06-15 0.004492 0.008384 0.015413 0.029192 0.055969 0.106578 0.211541
2025-06-22 0.004089 0.007791 0.014619 0.028300 0.055507 0.108153 0.220084
2025-06-29 0.003794 0.007375 0.014117 0.027918 0.055989 0.111570 0.232654
2025-07-06 0.003446 0.006827 0.013316 0.026871 0.055032 0.112019 0.239061
2025-07-13 0.003351 0.006770 0.013466 0.027749 0.058087 0.120888 0.264300
2025-07-20 0.003240 0.006671 0.013521 0.028433 0.060793 0.129266 0.289322
2025-07-27 0.003152 0.006611 0.013649 0.029280 0.063919 0.138813 0.317946
2025-08-03 0.002964 0.006325 0.013285 0.029033 0.064623 0.143143 0.335037
2025-08-10 0.002816 0.006110 0.013055 0.029057 0.065931 0.148922 0.356111